Colorado has plain-speaking
mountain people, honest folk who believe in facts and common sense, which makes
it possible to lie to them with statistics. Keep in mind that statistics is the
science of lying with the truth.
Police violence against blacks is
an example, as shown by the racial injustice that whereas 12.5% of the American
population is African-American, they make up 37% of the 2.2 million male prison
inmates as of 2014. Am I the only guy old enough to remember when those same
kinds of statistics were used to prove that blacks were more prone to be
criminals, along with other statistics to show how uneducated, dirty, and
inferior they were.
As we became enlightened, we railed
against the numbers, inventing mitigations of all kinds. But the problems were
not the numbers, for they were facts, but rather a violation of a statistical
mantra, "Correlation doesn't prove causality." Let me explain how violating
this high-sounding rule is one of the most effective ways to lie to
you.
A statistician looking for
enlightenment, as opposed to the more common need to support an opinion, would
look for all the other correlations of prison inmates. He might notice a
correlation showing a high percentage of folks with kinky hair in prison, which
of course the hair straightener vendors could use to pitch how their products
would keep you out of prison. Another statistic would show that poor people are
more likely to be in prison.
If the statistician continues to
crunch the numbers, and to apply a pinch of common sense, the kinky hair
statistic emerges as just another way of counting black people. More
importantly, the African-American statistic emerges as just another way to
count poor people. Further analysis shows that this correlation is fundamental
enough to prove causality.
Whereas we can froth about whether
black people are more prone to be criminals, uneducated, or dirty, we don't get
steamed with such statistics about poor people. Their poverty encourages law
breaking to make ends meet, and they can't afford education or bubble
baths.
Whereas the KKK uses the black
people statistic to militate for fewer black people, the ones recognizing the
true link between correlation and causality work for fewer poor people, that
is, to enrich their lives or at least to give them opportunities to stop being
poor people.
We can lobby for college admissions
criteria favorable to poor people without compunction, for example, while we
get our panties in a bunch over such criteria being favorable to blacks. The
fact is that a historically quick way to recognize poor people has been by the
color of their skin, thus forming a useful correlation. We deflect the racially
charged discussion to one of substance, one where we can all agree.
The internet bombards us with more
facts than humans have ever had to endure, and the majority of those come
correlated to bogus causality to support unfounded opinions. As Vin Scully once
said, "Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamp post: for support, not
illumination."
If you like to engage in
discussions with artillery duels of statistics, keep in mind that both of you
may be firing blanks. Better is to peek out of your foxholes, and think your
way to what is really behind the chaff.
Correlation doesn't prove
causality, but it presents the possibility so you can use your smarts to look
into it. Or you can use the correlation without that to lie well. Your
choice. |
Surfing mountain
Windy
day at Great Sand Dunes National Park
OK, I'm all ears
Garden of the Gods
Yes, I slept well there
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For more pictures of Colorado, click here. |
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